Chairperson, hon members, ladies and gentlemen, as I present Budget Vote 13 for Statistics South Africa, Stats SA, to this House today I recognise that the true value of statistics is frequently difficult to grasp. Good quality, timeous statistics is a process synthesised carefully and with attention to fine detail; its regularity means that in the main it is a task performed without fuss. In fact, it is a bit like breathing. We all breathe involuntarily and frequently for long periods, and we are not even aware of our breathing. However, if there is a crisis when one's chest suddenly tightens - as happens, along with grey hair - and CPR is required, we suddenly become conscious of all that is involved in this otherwise involuntary act.
In many ways, statistics is like breathing. It is present and most of us are not conscious of it - until there is a crisis. If a series is not produced on time, or if there are aberrations in particular statistical outputs, everybody becomes very conscious of it. Because we cannot be driven by crisis, it is imperative that I appeal to Parliament for stronger oversight.
This year, oversight by Parliament assumes a new importance as the country readies itself for Census 2011, the third in our democratic dispensation. While the significance of this massive task cannot be taken lightly, it should not detract from the ongoing work of Stats SA. This raises a number of questions about the nature of the oversight and the responsibility of Parliament to monitor spending.
It is fundamentally important that Parliament and its committees use section 32 reports and the quarterly reports published by National Treasury to inform their work. It does not serve any purpose if all that matters is that Stats SA received an unqualified audit without considering that the data being collected and produced has less veracity.
I am very encouraged by the vigilance of the Standing Committee on Appropriations, which noticed a lag in spending in the third quarter of the previous financial year and called Stats SA to account. In encouraging that committee and other committees, I urge you to extend their oversight. If breathing results in the release of fuel, of oxygen for our bodies, then evidence-based decision-making is the fuel released by reliable statistics.
The 2011-12 budget for Stats SA has doubled over the baseline largely because of the census and remains slightly higher in the MTEF period due to the costs related to the processing of the data. In reiterating my call on Parliament to perform ongoing oversight to ensure apposite outcomes, it is important for MPs to understand their responsibility to ensure the success of the census. The census is not purely for Stats SA, it is not a government census, but it is a state census for the entire South Africa.
I therefore want to make a request - in fact, one plea - on behalf of Stats SA and in the interest of fiscal responsibility, for public representatives everywhere, in all spheres, to be involved in the Census. I am not suggesting that public representatives replace the enumerators or, heaven forbid, that there be some expectation that MPs should physically supervise the data processing, but rather that MPs assist by encouraging constituents to open their doors to census-takers and encouraging families to participate voluntarily in the counting exercise.
Each one of us as a public representative ought to know the community that we serve, the people in their homes, the community organisations, the faith- based organisations, and the sports organisations, and we should know of existing and prospective settlements and trends in those areas. It is our responsibility to dampen the fears of people who have to provide information to enumerators. Our responsibility is then to take an interest in spending by ensuring that everyone is counted. If the census fails, it will not be money well spent, regardless of the audit results.
If Stats SA is not able to penetrate every nook and cranny, the Census data will not be reliable. I want to turn to every Member of Parliament, every member of a provincial legislature and the soon-to-be newly elected councillors to assist with ensuring that enumerators are able to freely engage every household. It goes without saying that this appeal goes out to members of all political parties. We recognise that there are areas that pose challenges for enumerators where we need assistance, such as getting access to every household, for instance, in a secure block of flats, or getting into compound living areas, be these large golf estates or small gated communities.
As public representatives, we should also be able to facilitate interaction with immigrant communities, whether they are recorded or not. Once we as public representatives have opened the doors, then we can step aside to allow enumerators to do their work. In providing our support, it is imperative that we ensure that communities trust the process, and I want to suggest that our public representatives should also be available for tasks such as verifying enumerators.
In undertaking this census 10 years after the previous one, we need to understand its significance. In all other probability sample surveys that Stats SA undertakes, selecting a percentage from the total, the sample selected would be around 30 000 households out of a total of about 13 million or 14 million now. At certain times that sample size is increased to 300 000 households, as was the case in the Community Survey. In other surveys repeat visits are implemented, as is the case at the moment with the Income and Expenditure Survey, which will be used to provide the source material for the basket of goods that will be used for the Consumer Price Index, as well as the Living Conditions Survey, which is a repeat survey.
The census is not a sample. It is different. The endeavour is to count every person living in South Africa between 10 and 31 October this year. It is not a sample - it has to be the true reflection against which all samples can be measured between this census and the next, which might be as far away as 2021. In this regard it has to be as accurate and as reliable a reflection as we can get.
An undercount therefore introduces the unnecessary risk of distortion. So, it is important that we understand that people who hide from enumerators or who blatantly tell untruths are breaking the law and risk wasting the overall spend on the census.
We need to understand very clearly why the census data is as vitally important as being able to breathe and what happens when there are difficulties. We are aware that there are parts of the country where residents have expressed dissatisfaction with service delivery and when this impacts on their responses, it obviously creates these difficulties.
Refusing to answer the questions posed by the enumerator because of anger due to, say, poor water or sewerage services or because electricity supply is nonexistent will not assist us with getting an accurate picture of service delivery needs. It is for this reason that we attach so much weight to the Census and it is precisely why we need public representatives to encourage communities to respond fully and honestly.
Understanding the circumstances and having a complete picture of the number and characteristics of the South African society allows government to engage in evidence-based decision-making and planning. For Parliament it is of paramount importance that this information is accurate as it allows for more informed and in-depth oversight.
Many of the members of this committee are also members of the Portfolio Committee on Finance and issues such as the Division of Revenue is debated in the context of fiscal arrangements. Unless you know where people are living, it's actually exceedingly difficult to make a fair allocation between provinces. Here the emphasis is on the fairness.
Particularly when one takes into account the power to amend money Bills that is contained in that legislation, then the information gained from the Census should provide a sound basis for evaluating government priorities. It is therefore in all our interest that this census is a resounding success.
In his state of the nation address, President Zuma announced that Makhaya Ntini would be a Census ambassador. I now want to invite all public representatives to join in as ambassadors for the Census. Join Makhaya Ntini, bowl a mean fast ball and market the Census!
Let me inform the House about some of the preparations. On 10 October last year, we announced the countdown of a year to the Census. The message to all South Africans is simple: "You count!" In what is often referred to as the largest mobilisation in times of peace, the Census will employ a workforce of 156 000 people in a staggered manner. About 6 000 fieldworkers started training earlier this year and continued to do so in preparation for the training of 30 000 supervisors by the beginning of September and 120 000 enumerators by the middle of September this year. They will be deployed across the country, where they will interact with more than 50 million people living in approximately 14 million households.
It is crucial that no household is overlooked and therefore Stats SA has divided the country into 103 000 enumeration areas, with at least one enumerator per area. I must indicate that these demarcations have nothing to do with municipal boundaries and are purely in place as a tool to manage the Census. The verification process of enumeration areas started early this year and will be completed in July 2011.
These enumerators will be fluent in the languages of the enumeration area, will have questionnaires in all official languages and, in the event that they may encounter a language that they are not familiar with, they will be equipped with a translation booklet. I am not sure if we will be doing it in Russian and Kazakh and so on, but it will certainly be in the languages we speak in this part of the world.
In addition to having Stats SA-issued identity cards, enumerators will also be identified by their yellow bibs, yellow caps and yellow bags. They'll look almost as yellow as the Statistician-General. [Laughter.] We are aware of the concerns that many people may have about allowing strangers into their homes. To allay these and other fears, all applicants will have their credentials verified by the State Security Agency before being employed.
On 9 October 2011, enumerators will visit establishments such as hospitals and hotels to distribute forms. Between 10 and 31 October 2011, enumerators will visit households, ensuring that they complete these forms.
The questionnaire is ready and has undergone several tests, including testing the viability of the questions by using a focus group and analysing the reactions to the questions. The processing of the questionnaires by scanning was tested during the pilot project and the pre-census test. The printing is on its halfway mark and will be completed by June. The logistics plan is in place and Stats SA has established an additional 64 district offices, ensuring that we get all the work through.
During the Budget debate last year, I raised concerns about the undercount of 10% that was experienced in 1996 and of 17% experienced in 2001. I challenged Stats SA not simply to reduce it to a single digit but to a maximum of 2%. The challenge is still in place and I am urging members to assist them with meeting that target.
There is no denying that the Census is the largest project that Stats SA undertakes. Last year we discussed the changes that had been made to the Consumer Price Index, CPI, so that it accurately reflected the impact of price changes on the living standards of families. As trends constantly change, Stats SA is currently undertaking an Income and Expenditure Survey to review the contents of the CPI basket once more. This survey is expected to be completed in the next six months, with the reweighted basket being completed in the third quarter of the next financial year. However, at this stage we can't indicate when the new CPI will be available, because it depends on the extent to which the basket changes. If you change it by more than a quarter, then you actually need to run concurrent surveys over at least 12 months to get a new indication. It is a better measure. We would like to have it sooner but at this stage we couldn't indicate how spending patterns have changed exactly.
In addition, the Producer Price Index, which is the factory-gate price index, is also being retooled substantially, including by having additional goods added. It is envisaged that this process will be completed in the next financial year, as it requires one year of overlap in order to see the difference in the index. Today, I make the undertaking that we will report to Parliament on progress with regard to this initiative as well.
The Statistics Act makes it very clear that Stats SA is responsible for the production of national statistics. However, the collection of raw data is a national competency and in this regard Stats SA depends on government departments to manage their administrative records as crucial sources of statistical information. Section 14 of the Statistics Act sets out the parameters for the co-ordination of statistical collection and the production across the country, and although there has been some progress in developing an integrated national system of statistics, South Africa's overall statistics system still remains reasonably fragmented.
While there are large areas requiring attention, Stats SA maintains the quality of statistics by ensuring that these sources qualify as potential candidates for official statistics by subjecting them to the South African Statistical Quality Assessment Framework. Parliamentary monitoring of this aspect of Stats SA's work in relation to government departments will play a strong role in improving the collection of national statistics.
It is crucial to understand that while the information will have statistical relevance, it can also be used to track a wide range of social and economic trends. We need to understand the improvement in the co- ordination of statistics as part of our developmental agenda. Co-ordination of official statistics across organs of state remains critical in order to use evidence as the basis for decisions, and statistics remains core to this process. A culture of measurement and record-keeping must be encouraged among all organs of state. While the building blocks exist through the monitoring and evaluation and planning frameworks, these require the crucial ingredients of capacity.
Last year I informed you of the joint initiative between Stats SA, SA Revenue Services, and the Department of Trade and Industry, aimed at creating a single business register. I am pleased to announce that the policy framework and draft legislation - the key mechanisms to bringing about this transformed business registration environment - have been developed and are being refined before getting Cabinet's approval.
Developing tools for the reliable and accurate measurement of our economy is a national imperative and not simply an option. The business registration system is one of the tools that will provide clarity about role-players in the SA economy. You need to know which businesses are there, and the sectors where they are operating, so that you can sample adequately and get core data sets, such as employment and so forth.
In the same way that producing national statistics is a collaborative effort, we rely on our partners to assist. This initiative is one that will benefit a great deal from the strong oversight by Parliament, as was mentioned earlier. It was not just the Department of Trade and Industry that was involved, but also the Company and Intellectual Property Registration Office, Cipro, in particular, so Parliament's interest in this joint venture becomes fundamental.
We will all agree that statistics production requires very specific skills and in order to cultivate these skills to ensure a steady supply of statisticians, Stats SA has established an intern programme. The organisation also provides bursaries to learners after they pass a selection process. To further ensure that there is a return on the investment, students are monitored during their tertiary education, and after qualifying they are employed as interns at Stats SA. This rigorous process ensures not only that the students are employed but also that they are properly qualified and employable. I once again call on the members of this House to assist with ensuring that the compilation of the statistics that guide this government be as smooth and effortless as breathing. The good health of Stats SA should serve to prevent it from suffering a loss of oxygen.
I want to take this opportunity to thank the Standing Committee on Finance, ably chaired by the hon Thaba Mufamadi, for consistently providing thoughtful insights and challenges to Stats SA. I want to express our appreciation to the Statistician-General, Mr Pali Lehohla, and his team, to the Stats Council, chaired by Mr Howard Gabriels, and to the Audit Committee, chaired by Ms Ren van Wyk, who is here with us today as well, for their advice and hard work to date. I want to wish them every success with all the work of Stats SA, particularly with the work of the Census. Thank you very much. [Applause.]