Hon House Chairperson, as a birthday present to the committee chairman, let me recap some of the credits that the budget speech got from certain analysts and commentators. There are three things I want to cover: firstly, the sentiments expressed in the Budget that underlined how government needs to work with the private sector, and move to implementation of the National Development Plan; secondly, the reassurance for rating agencies that are coming in with budget deficit figures lower than expected; and thirdly, introducing the expenditure ceiling and projections for cost containment and savings on items like catering, entertainment and venue rental. Overall, some analysts were relieved that this was a conservative budget.
However, the DA has to ask itself, when seven million South Africans are unemployed, and we have the highest unemployment rate amongst middle-income countries, whether a conservative budget is good enough. When our economy is growing at less than 2% per year, while any other emerging markets are growing at 4% to 6%, is a conservative budget good enough?
The Finance Minister has avoided these awkward questions, and he stayed on message for the governing party's election campaign by suggesting that this Budget should be judged by the fact that our country is better today than it was under apartheid. Of course, we all know that it is not debatable; we have all acknowledged that things are better today than under apartheid. The real question is how this administration has performed over the past five years, and whether this Budget before the House is strong and brave enough to take us out of the economic doldrums.
No member in this House would deny the fact that the global financial crisis had a central role to play in the deterioration of our economy in 2009. The Minister described this in great detail in his speech. But what he did not describe is how South Africa, unlike most emerging markets, suffered a double crisis, the global financial crisis on the one hand, and a crisis of political leadership on the other. While our economy grew at 1,9% last year, Peru, Malaysia, Chile - you have all of heard these countries in recent weeks - are growing at 4% to 6%. While political leaders in those countries and other developing countries responded to the global financial crisis by implementing reforms to make their economies more competitive today, our leaders muddled along, tabling contradictory economic plans and refusing to take on vested interest rights at the top of government. That is why our average gross domestic product growth has dropped from 4,2% under President Mbeki to 2,8% under President Zuma. The President himself acknowledged in a speech today that growth has not been adequate to meet the objective of reducing unemployment substantially. The bottom line is that today there are 1,4 million more unemployed South Africans than there were on the day that President Zuma took office.
The only way we can really measure this Budget is by asking two questions: Does it do enough to help our economy to create jobs and does it do enough to accelerate economic growth? I think the answer to both of these questions is no. That is why we cannot support this report, nor the Fiscal Framework.
If you dig a little deeper, even the aspects of the speech that I welcomed earlier on are problematic. [Interjections.] Firstly, it is good for the Finance Minister to make the right noises each February about implementing the NDP, but South Africans have seen that this government does not listen to him and the implementation does not happen; secondly, the main reason we hit that lower budget deficit figure is because the provinces underspent by R6,7 billion, reflecting deep capacity problems across ANC-run provinces.
It is also not clear that government will comply with the Finance Minister's cost containment measures. We remember the North West Premier at the end of last year buying herself a R1,3 million car; we saw the Mpumalanga Premier buying himself an Audi A8, a BMW X5 and a Range Rover; and we saw the budget for this years' presidential inauguration increased to R120 million, 60% more than what we spent last time.
There are other, deeper structural problems with this Budget. We are told that government debt, as a percentage of GDP, will peak in three years' time, but peak means it is going to come down afterwards. So, why has last year's peak of 40% in 2015 changed to a new peak of 44% in 2016? This raises serious questions, at the very least about the long-term sustainability of our government finances, particularly when already today R1 out every R10 we spend goes into paying off debt.
There has also been a lot of fuss about the R1 trillion we have spent on infrastructure over the past five years. If you go with the amounts the NDP says we should be spending on infrastructure, that number should have been more than R1,5 trillion. The R847 billion that the Minister is claiming over the next three years should actually be over R1,2 trillion. The bottom line is that we are not spending enough on infrastructure. While the Minister pays lip service to the NDP, the actual implementation has not happened.
Why are we not holding teachers accountable for their performance? Why have we not seen the regulatory reform we need to boost growth? Why have we not overhauled the Public Service to hold government employees accountable? Why are we increasing barriers to trade and investment rather than lowering them?
The implementation has not happened because the ideological enemies of the NDP are many; they sit at the highest levels of government, and the President is not prepared to take them on. That is the reason why South Africans do not have confidence that the good sentiments expressed each year by the Finance Minister will translate into real action by government.
It is the reason why, despite being the largest economy in Africa, we are not benefiting from the African economic growth of 6%. While we have the largest endowment of mineral resources, our mining sector has contracted by 0,5% for the past three years.
It is also the reason why this Budget is too conservative to tackle unemployment and slow growth, and the reason why we cannot support it. Thank you. [Applause.]