(a) In an effort to determine the proportion of the excess deaths which are attributable to COVID-19 and what proportion are attributable to non-COVID factors, the SAMRC Burden of Disease Research Unit and University of Cape Town (UCT) Centre for Actuarial Research used the correlation of excess natural deaths with other measures of the COVID-19 pandemic in South Africa. Based on comparison of the time trends in excess deaths, the confirmed COVID-19 deaths (by date of occurrence), and proportions testing positive for SARS-CoV-2 in 2020 and 2021, the SAMRC/UCT collaboration estimated that 85%-95% of excess deaths were directly related to COVID-19. However, it was not possible to assess whether this differs by age groups.
(b) The remaining 5-15% of the excess deaths are considered to be attributable to non-COVID-19 factors.
END.