ANC’s decline: Fact or Fable?

This year’s election results was no surprise for the South African people, with the leading party still holding the majority vote with 62%. But, what was not expected was where the decrease in voter percentage came from.

Political analyst and Professor, Steven Friedman, says if the current trends continue, the ANC will continue to rule for the next 20 years. However, if internal pressure within the ANC begins to build up, it is likely the party will decline.

Friedman says what was meant to occur was a “melting pot” within the ANC as result of political fallouts within the party.

“The meltdown in the ANC would have been because of the significant unhappiness within the ANC base - COSATU was divided, the youth league was reduced to an administrative body.”

Friedman says if the decrease of ANC’s voter percentage in major areas such as Gauteng and the Western Cape continues, there will be a “small slippage” in the ANC vote within these major metros.

“The ANC lost Cape Town already, The ANC dropped more than 10% in the most urbanised province in country, Gauteng. The Nelson Mandela metro had 49.6% and Johannesburg with 53%. All of these metros are marginal—if there is a small slippage in votes for the ANC then they won’t have a majority in these metros.

Based on statistics, Friedman believes the ANC won the support of only 46% of registered voters in South Africa whilst the a large majority of the poor, rural communities were not part of this process.

“Governance is about accountability, a situation where two-thirds of the population is not part of this process, is very concerning. All factors indicate that despite a clear run for ANC, there are some very real tensions.”

Friedman believes the only way to resolve the unsustainable levels of poverty without damaging the economy is by “negotiation”. Friedman remains optimistic for the future and is certain that the ANC will adopt this approach.

“I remain optimistic, we do have some prospects of at least experimenting or attempting to negotiate our way out of the economic dilemmas we find ourselves in.”

Ansha Krishnan, International Intern