Security and economic clusters important to new cabinet, says analyst

Following Zuma’s new cabinet being sworn in on Monday, People’s Assembly caught up with Aubrey Matshiqi, political analyst and research fellow at the Helen Suzman Foundation, to ask him about the significance of certain changes and appointments.

Matshiqi said that he thought the security cluster and economic cluster were of the greatest importance. “Changes in the security cluster didn’t come as a surprise. If you go back to the time when Jacob Zuma was doing battle with Thabo Mbeki for leadership of the ANC in Polokwane, the security cluster were split in the middle with taking sides” Matshiqi said.

He added that “human security services were quite thin” and that they failed to detect taxi violence and service delivery protests before they happened.

“The image of the police force is too militarised and brutal in its relationship with citizens” Matshiqi said. He added that in the aftermath of Marikana, various TV clips and statements had shown Nathi Mthethwa to be “clueless” and “insensitive”.

“Given that the president had has an intelligence background it is an area where he isn’t as hands off as other policy areas”, Matshiqi said.

With regards to Mthethwa being moved to Arts and Culture Minister rather than removed entirely and the appointment of Bheki Cele to Deputy Minister of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries as well as retaining Shabangu and Joemat-Pettersson, Matshiqi argued that it seems “political decisions are overriding that of good governance”. He added that this was leading to a “recycling of failure” and that Mthethwa “must have been saved by being a Zuma loyalist”.

Matshiqi went on to explain that the economic portfolio appointment were particularly challenging because President Zuma needed to boost investor confidence on the one hand and send a message to the ANC’s working class support base that the country will not hold back on social spending, on the other. The latter is no mean feat given the sluggish global economy.

The South African Reserve Bank has downgraded our growth prospects to 2.1 and “ABSA Capital estimates as low as 1.4... there is a lack of fiscal space to play with and monetary policy will have to tighten” said Matshiqi. He added that the 18-week mining strike had led to negative investor confidence.

The economy therefore required a degree of continuity, so when Zuma decided to replace Gordhan as Finance Minister, it wasn’t a problem as “Nene has been there for some time” said Matshiqi. Furthermore the President retained Economic Development Minister Ebrahim Patel and Trade and Industry Minister Rob Davies.

Matshiqi went on to say, “Creating a new Ministry of Small Business Development speaks directly to job creation. The new Minister [Lindiwe Zulu] can’t achieve success alone. She will have to negotiate with other ministers to make the regulatory framework less onerous”. He added that compared to other developing countries, it is not easy to start a business here and it can take up to a month “just to get a licence”.

He noted that small businesses suffer when they are paid late by big business and the state and while there was not much Minister Zulu could do about the former she needed to work hard to “sensitise government” to paying on time.

Matshiqi said that the economic cluster needed coordinated logic and effective leadership and that in the position of Deputy President, Ramaphosa would need to “be a bridge builder between government and business and labour and business”. Furthermore Ramaphosa will need to be “honest the National Development Plan is not a plan, it a vision. He will have to show technocratic [ability] to turn it into a plan.” Matshiqi said.

“The Zuma camp doesn’t see [Ramaphosa] as a successor... they needed him now to boost confidence in markets. If he succeeds in gaining business confidence then that can only be at the expense of the Left,” said Matshiqi. Its as if he is caught between a rock and a hard place – keeping investors and the Left in the alliance happy is sure to be a tricky balancing act.

People’s Assembly was particularly interested in the appointment of Malusi Gigaba to Minister of Home Affairs. Might this be signalling something?

“The ANC sees Gigaba as a possible future head of state. It’s very clear that he’s being prepared for something big. On Sunday the rumour was that he was either going to Home Affairs or be Intelligence minister. He has worked in that Home Affairs Department as a deputy and he has a head for technocratic detail so he will be able to give direction to the department,” Matshiqi said.

“Home Affairs is critical also in terms of national security. His appointment is testimony to the level of trust that the President and those that have support in him.”

Of the 35 ministerial portfolios, 20 (57%) are male and 15 (43%) are female. For a complete list of the new Cabinet and Deputy Ministers, see: SA Cabinet and Deputy Ministers: Who are they?